The best player in the draft wasn’t picked number one, but number two. Lonzo Ball’s name has been on the lips of NBA fans since last season, when he was projected early to go number 1, before Markelle Fultz took over as the consensus best player. That analysis is wrong, though, and Philadelphia will regret their decision when Lonzo wins his first MVP in a few years.
Moving fast today, aren’t we?
Here’s why—he’s the guy who can make the biggest impact. Today’s NBA is all about impact players—how does your game create problems for the other guy? Steph Curry can hit threes from 35 feet with regularity. James Harden drives to the bucket whenever he pleases. Giannis can dunk on you from the corner of the paint. Lonzo fits into this mold of players who can simply do things you can’t teach; his passing ability is obviously transcendent. His shooting style is, to put it nicely, incorrect, but it goes in the hoop a lot, and he shoots it with an outrageous amount of confidence. Fultz can shoot better than him, but Lonzo runs a better point. You can sense the level of comfort from guys who play with him—they’re not that worried about getting open because they know Lonzo is going to find them.
Ball isn’t a great on ball defender as far as preventing points, but he is a great defender when you look at how he creates turnovers on defense. Curry isn’t going to physically lock you down, but if you get careless with your dribble, he makes you pay. That’s what non-athletically dominant guards have to do—interrupt lanes, strip the ball, and create a defensive impact. There’s that word again. His 5 steals last night made him a problem on defense. That is the best thing to be in the NBA (when the other team is saying it about you). He also isn’t gonna let you shoot in his face like Isaiah Thomas. He’s 6’6”, which many people don’t realize. If you disrespect his defensive ability, he’ll swat you away just the same.
Offensively, he gets it done. He’s your grade A point guard who moves the ball around seamlessly, scores, and holds up his end of the bargain on defense. But there are plenty of guys who fit this mold. Lonzo is special because of the least measurable value in sports—the “It” factor. Think I’m full of it? How many 19-year olds could absolutely BOMB their professional debut, and then come back and wow everyone for the rest of the summer league?
Watching Lonzo on draft night was the first time I realized he really had it. He didn’t look like a kid from UCLA anymore; the way he sat there was so interesting to watch. He was silent, calm, looking around at everything that was going on. The moment wasn’t too big for him; in fact, it was just the right size. Look at his father. Lonzo doesn’t back down from the big stage—in fact, he actively seeks it out. He wants the Lakers and the media in LA. He wants his father to keep overhyping him and putting pressure where it doesn’t need to be. He wants the ball in his hands, and his hands only. Like I said, he’s 6’6”. He could’ve easily been a shooting guard. He wanted to be the center of attention, the most important player on a team. He has it.
The “It” factor is what separates talented players from stars. Bradley Beal is an incredibly talented player, and one of the best scorers in the NBA. John Wall has that thing. That’s the difference, and that’s why John Wall took the 28 foot three with the season on the line in Game 6 against Boston. Beal is a better shooter; Wall is the guy. Zo, too, is the guy. Ingram can shoot 49% from 3 this season, but Game 7 of the Finals (the Lakers won’t be there, but humor me), you’re putting the ball in Lonzo’s hands. He’s going to do whatever it takes—whether it be a pass, shot, or dunk—to win the game.
Compare Lonzo with the other players in this year’s class. Fultz’s biggest problem is Lonzo’s biggest strength: while Fultz won 9 games, Lonzo took the Bruins pretty far. Even though their teams were significantly different, the “best player in the draft” couldn’t take over a game more than 9 times. Lonzo’s teammates will be better because of him than Fultz’s will. Jayson Tatum has a more comparable impact on his team in the Summer League, but his game is very reliant on post scoring. His percentages will change once he faces NBA defenders at the SF position. Tatum will also make less of an impact than Ball beyond the arc, not only because of their respective skill, but because Ball’s position affords him more volume. Josh Jackson is too raw to take over a playoff game. DeAaron Fox can certainly defend Ball when he’s passing to UCLA Bruins, but what about when he’ s dishing to Ingram, Clarkson, Randle, KCP, and Lopez? Maybe he gets shut down a little less.
Ball has the potential, at 6’6” and with better passing and scoring abilities than most 19 year old prospects, to be an MVP. He has 4 years to fully develop his NBA game, and then he’ll be a 23 year old nearing the prime of his career. The Lakers are setting themselves up to acquire Paul George, LeBron James, or both. I strongly believe they’ll get at least one, and if Ball gets to start dishing full court dimes to someone with PG13’s shooting ability, he’s going to average 10 APG. His shot is flawed, but flawed shots work in the NBA if they go in a lot.
The tall point guard in Los Angeles, being mentored by the greatest passer in history, who possesses an undeniable essence of stardom from a young age, is going to be the best player to come out of this draft class. When you read it like that, it makes a lot more sense. But don’t stop there—one day, when Golden State’s reign subsides, we’ll be talking about Lonzo Ball’s first MVP award. Maybe building that shoe brand that everyone knows by name now wasn’t such a bad idea, after all.
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